Analysis of US Government’s Bitcoin Reserve Dynamics Amid Reported Holdings Decline
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Introduction: The Strategic Game of Cryptocurrency Reserves
The dynamics of the U.S. government’s Bitcoin holdings have consistently captured market attention. Recent reports suggest that the U.S. government’s Bitcoin reserves have shrunk by 12% over the past nine months. Although this data is not explicitly documented in public records, analyzing policy changes and market behaviors can reveal key insights. From the disposal of seized assets to legislative proposals and the application of innovative financial tools, the U.S. is attempting to balance regulation with strategic reserves.
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Bitcoin Reserve Mechanism Under Policy Framework
BITCOIN Act and Strategic Reserve Vision
The _BITCOIN Act_ proposed in April 2025 requires the Treasury Department to purchase 1 million BTC (approximately one-fifth of the current market value) over five years to establish a national-level cryptocurrency pool. This proposal aligns with the spirit of the Trump administration’s March executive order, which aimed to use 200,000 BTC (valued at $17 billion) seized by the Justice Department as the foundation for strategic reserves. The proposal also explores budget-neutral acquisition paths.
Dynamic Management of Seized Assets
The federal government currently holds approximately 103,500 BTC (excluding amounts to be returned to victims), including 94,600 BTC from the Bitfinex hack case, which may be returned to their rightful owners. This “passive accumulation” model means that actual holdings are significantly affected by case developments, providing a potential explanation for the alleged “12% reduction.”
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Market Behavior and Reserve Scale
Historical Sell-offs and Opportunity Costs
The $216 million BTC sell-off in March 2023 is widely seen as a tactical mistake—Bitcoin has since appreciated by nearly 400% over the following four years. This short-term liquidation behavior contrasts with long-term strategic goals, reflecting discrepancies in policy execution. This discrepancy highlights the internal disagreements within the policy-making layers.
Decreasing Miner Output
The 2028 halving will reduce daily output from 450 BTC to 225 BTC. If the government relies solely on seized assets to acquire BTC, future increments will face natural constraints. This forces policymakers to consider active purchase plans to maintain reserve levels.
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Innovative Tools to Overcome Budget Constraints
BitBonds’ Debt Replacement Logic
The Bitcoin Policy Institute proposed issuing “BitBonds” with a 1% interest rate, using reduced interest payments to save fiscal funds for BTC purchases. This design cleverly circumvents the constraints of the _Anti-Deficit Act_, achieving budget-neutral cryptocurrency allocation operations.
Expanding the Functions of Stabilization Funds
Using the $40 billion surplus of the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) to allocate Bitcoin aligns with the fund’s legal mandate to maintain currency stability while avoiding congressional appropriation procedures. This institutional arbitrage strategy provides a reference for other sovereign nations.
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Controversial Issues and Real Challenges
– Concentration of Price Volatility Risks: Excessive exposure of national assets to a single cryptocurrency may lead to systemic risks.
– Regulatory Arbitrage Questions: The return of coins involved in cases like Bitfinex may weaken enforcement deterrence.
– Technical Governance Deficiencies: Operational aspects such as cold wallet management lack standardized protocols.
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Conclusion: A New Paradigm of Sovereign Wealth in the Digital Age
When the speculative fervor akin to Warhol’s paintings encounters the operational logic of state machinery, the concept of “strategic cryptocurrency reserves” is reshaping the boundaries of modern fiscal science. Whether through passive seizures or active acquisitions, the U.S. government’s stance on Bitcoin reflects the complex attitude of traditional financial systems toward disruptive technologies—balancing the need to mitigate risks, leverage liquidity, and exploit value appreciation. The next five years will be a critical window for testing the resilience of this new hybrid monetary policy toolkit.
資料來源:
[2] coinledger.io
[3] www.congress.gov
[4] www.ccn.com
[5] www.theblock.co
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